The Art of Thinking Clearly电子书

Dedication

Contents

Introduction

1 Why You Should Visit Cemeteries: Survivorship Bias

2 Does Harvard Make You Smarter?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion

3 Why You See Shapes in the Clouds: Clustering Illusion

4 If Fifty Million People Say Something Foolish, It Is Still Foolish: Social Proof

5 Why You Should Forget the Past: Sunk Cost Fallacy

6 Don’t Accept Free Drinks: Reciprocity

7 Beware the “Special Case”: Confirmation Bias (Part 1)

8 Murder Your Darlings: Confirmation Bias (Part 2)

9 Don’t Bow to Authority: Authority Bias

10 Leave Your Supermodel Friends at Home: Contrast Effect

11 Why We Prefer a Wrong Map to None at All: Availability Bias

12 Why “No Pain, No Gain” Should Set Alarm Bells Ringing: The It’ll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy

13 Even True Stories Are Fairy Tales: Story Bias

14 Why You Should Keep a Diary: Hindsight Bias

15 Why You Systematically Overestimate Your Knowledge and Abilities: Overconfidence Effect

16 Don’t Take News Anchors Seriously: Chauffeur Knowledge

17 You Control Less Than You Think: Illusion of Control

18 Never Pay Your Lawyer by the Hour: Incentive Super-Response Tendency

19 The Dubious Efficacy of Doctors, Consultants, and Psychotherapists: Regression to Mean

20 Never Judge a Decision by Its Outcome: Outcome Bias

21 Less Is More: Paradox of Choice

22 You Like Me, You Really, Really Like Me: Liking Bias

23 Don’t Cling to Things: Endowment Effect

24 The Inevitability of Unlikely Events: Coincidence

25 The Calamity of Conformity: Groupthink

26 Why You’ll Soon Be Playing Mega Trillions: Neglect of Probability

27 Why the Last Cookie in the Jar Makes Your Mouth Water: Scarcity Error

28 When You Hear Hoofbeats, Don’t Expect a Zebra: Base-Rate Neglect

29 Why the “Balancing Force of the Universe” Is Baloney: Gambler’s Fallacy

30 Why the Wheel of Fortune Makes Our Heads Spin: The Anchor

31 How to Relieve People of Their Millions: Induction

32 Why Evil Is More Striking Than Good: Loss Aversion

33 Why Teams Are Lazy: Social Loafing

34 Stumped by a Sheet of Paper: Exponential Growth

35 Curb Your Enthusiasm: Winner’s Curse

36 Never Ask a Writer If the Novel Is Autobiographical: Fundamental Attribution Error

37 Why You Shouldn’t Believe in the Stork: False Causality

38 Why Attractive People Climb the Career Ladder More Quickly: Halo Effect

39 Congratulations! You’ve Won Russian Roulette: Alternative Paths

40 False Prophets: Forecast Illusion

41 The Deception of Specific Cases: Conjunction Fallacy

42 It’s Not What You Say, but How You Say It: Framing

43 Why Watching and Waiting Is Torture: Action Bias

44 Why You Are Either the Solution—or the Problem: Omission Bias

45 Don’t Blame Me: Self-Serving Bias

46 Be Careful What You Wish For: Hedonic Treadmill

47 Do Not Marvel at Your Existence: Self-Selection Bias

48 Why Experience Can Damage Your Judgment: Association Bias

49 Be Wary When Things Get Off to a Great Start: Beginner’s Luck

50 Sweet Little Lies: Cognitive Dissonance

51 Live Each Day as If It Were Your Last—but Only on Sundays: Hyperbolic Discounting

52 Any Lame Excuse: “Because” Justification

53 Decide Better—Decide Less: Decision Fatigue

54 Would You Wear Hitler’s Sweater?: Contagion Bias

55 Why There Is No Such Thing as an Average War: The Problem with Averages

56 How Bonuses Destroy Motivation: Motivation Crowding

57 If You Have Nothing to Say, Say Nothing: Twaddle Tendency

58 How to Increase the Average IQ of Two States: Will Rogers Phenomenon

59 If You Have an Enemy, Give Him Information: Information Bias

60 Hurts So Good: Effort Justification

61 Why Small Things Loom Large: The Law of Small Numbers

62 Handle with Care: Expectations

63 Speed Traps Ahead!: Simple Logic

64 How to Expose a Charlatan: Forer Effect

65 Volunteer Work Is for the Birds: Volunteer’s Folly

66 Why You Are a Slave to Your Emotions: Affect Heuristic

67 Be Your Own Heretic: Introspection Illusion

68 Why You Should Set Fire to Your Ships: Inability to Close Doors

69 Disregard the Brand New: Neomania

70 Why Propaganda Works: Sleeper Effect

71 Why It’s Never Just a Two-Horse Race: Alternative Blindness

72 Why We Take Aim at Young Guns: Social Comparison Bias

73 Why First Impressions Are Deceiving: Primacy and Recency Effects

74 Why You Can’t Beat Homemade: Not-Invented-Here Syndrome

75 How to Profit from the Implausible: The Black Swan

76 Knowledge Is Nontransferable: Domain Dependence

77 The Myth of Like-Mindedness: False-Consensus Effect

78 You Were Right All Along: Falsification of History

79 Why You Identify with Your Football Team: In-Group Out-Group Bias

80 The Difference between Risk and Uncertainty: Ambiguity Aversion

81 Why You Go with the Status Quo: Default Effect

82 Why “Last Chances” Make Us Panic: Fear of Regret

83 How Eye-Catching Details Render Us Blind: Salience Effect

84 Why Money Is Not Naked: House-Money Effect

85 Why New Year’s Resolutions Don’t Work: Procrastination

86 Build Your Own Castle: Envy

87 Why You Prefer Novels to Statistics: Personification

88 You Have No Idea What You Are Overlooking: Illusion of Attention

89 Hot Air: Strategic Misrepresentation

90 Where’s the Off Switch?: Overthinking

91 Why You Take On Too Much: Planning Fallacy

92 Those Wielding Hammers See Only Nails: Déformation Professionnelle

93 Mission Accomplished: Zeigarnik Effect

94 The Boat Matters More Than the Rowing: Illusion of Skill

95 Why Checklists Deceive You: Feature-Positive Effect

96 Drawing the Bull’s-Eye around the Arrow: Cherry Picking

97 The Stone Age Hunt for Scapegoats: Fallacy of the Single Cause

98 Why Speed Demons Appear to Be Safer Drivers: Intention-to-Treat Error

99 Why You Shouldn’t Read the News: News Illusion

Epilogue

Acknowledgments

A Note on Sources

About the Author

Credits

Copyright

About the Publisher