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The Greatest Crash
Introduction
Preface
The Greatest Crash
The roadblock preventing growth
The concept of a financial system limit
A world riddled with contradictions
The policy limit
Evolution by trial and error
How the financial system evolved
The Marxist view of capitalism
The Great Depression and Keynes
The long economic cycle
The post-war consensus and the managed economy
The growth of services and a new cycle
Before the credit crunch
Borrowing from the future
How the British economy destroyed value
The Private Finance Initiative
Other warnings
PFI was a financial bubble
Private equity
An era of wishful thinking
Lessons from Japan
Warnings from sub-prime
The misuse of numbers and bubble accounting
Accounting for knowledge
What is a valuation?
Risk is not amortised
Offshore financial vehicles
The cost of debt
Public or private debt?
The statistics of difference
Bubble accounting must change
Pension funds
Pension fund growth assumptions
The fashion for alternative assets
Target date funds
Property
The home-owning dream
Mortgage availability
Demographics
The link between economic activity and residential property
Market saturation
Unique factors in the United Kingdom
Other countries
The world’s deficit with itself
Devaluing the dollar
Twin design flaws in the Euro
Debtor and creditor nations
Contradictions and paradoxes
Rescues and bailouts are self-defeating
The austerity contradiction
When economic relationships change
Changed behaviour
The 50% factor and the savings contradiction
Growth or decline?
When growth is decline: distinguishing economic growth from credit and regulatory growth
Government mandated spending
Substitute taxation
Substitutes for public ownership
The conflicts in easy answers
Official forecasts and the limits to government power
Treasury forecasting
Do governments have any power?
The link with evolution, delegated government and regulation
The political system limit
Why deflation is unavoidable
Global paradoxes
Government bond markets
Broader paradoxes of capitalism
Communism, Islam and population change
Group think
Mass delusions and the media crowd
Consensus or contrarian?
Some examples of group think
The world of standards and rules
The regulated, compliant society
Conformity
Academic differences of opinion
The differing economic arguments
Is financial theory bunk?
The dark side of capital markets
The capital market cycle
Conversion flow
The greater fool theory
Dow theory of ‘bear’ markets
Practical perspectives
Time
Propaganda
Conditions for the ‘bear’ market to end
What should investors do in this great ‘bear’ market?
The attitude change
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