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Understanding Brexit Options
Acknowledgements
The author
By the same author
Wisdom from our forebears
Abbreviations
Tables
Introduction
1 Britain’s options
Timetable for the UK to leave the EU
Option 1, a complete break with the EU: “Hard Brexit”
Hard Brexit and the single market
Hard Brexit and the non-EEA existing free trade countries
Hard Brexit and the rest of the world
Four questions about trade
Other consequences of Hard Brexit
Travelling in Europe
Option 2, a loose arrangement
Option 3, staying in the single market: “Soft Brexit” (“Brexit-lite”)
Soft Brexit outside the customs union
Soft Brexit inside the customs union
Option 4: negotiating a Close Association agreement
The World Trade Organisation
Evaluating the Brexit alternatives
The coming recession
A word about capital markets
Brexit summary
2 The importance of free trade
Development of free trade
The four freedoms, EEA, EFTA and British trade with the EU
The European Economic Area
Joining EFTA
Free trade or migration?
Alternative trading relationships with the EU
Britain needs the single market but the EU does not need Britain
Rotterdam effect
Economic impact of leaving the single market
Trade with the rest of the world
3 A British view of non-trade factors
“Fog in channel, continent isolated”
Keeping the United Kingdom together
Reconciling the different groups of British attitudes to Europe
British citizens residing in other free-movement countries
The risk of political upsets
Politics of inequality and austerity
Regulation
Negotiating with the EU
4 Britain and Europe
The EU is not perfect
What does the EU do?
Structure of the EU
The democratic deficit in Europe
Leadership
The refugee crisis
Britain’s relationship with Europe
5 The state of Britain
Politics and the economy
The disconnection between Britons and the political elite
Referendums in Britain
Britain’s future
6 What now?
Appendix: Examples of political misconceptions
Sparkling Books
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