逆势而上电子书

长期主义者的理性观察

Introduction

前言

Part I Growth and Risk Over the Medium Term

第一部分 中期经济增长和风险

How Fast Will China Grow Over the Next 15 Years?

未来15年中国经济预期增速是多少？

China's Path to High-Income Status: Lessons From Recent Success Stories

中国通向高收入国家之路

Can China Be the Next South Korea?

中国会成为下一个韩国吗？

Beidou: China's First Outer Space Infrastructure Project

北斗：中国首个外太空基础设施建设工程

PBOC's Virtual Renminbi Is Becoming a Reality

中国人民银行虚拟人民币正在成为现实

China's High-Speed Rail: A Case Study in Independent Innovation

中国高铁：自主创新的案例研究

5G and the Competition to Win the 21st Century

5G与赢得21世纪的竞争

Is China's Investment Really That Unproductive?

中国的投资真的没有收益吗？

How Sustainable Is China's Debt?

中国债务的可持续性如何？

China Needs More Defaults and More Meaningful Credit Ratings

中国债券市场需要更多“违约”和更有意义的信用等级评定

Is China Facing a Demographic Crisis?

中国是否面临人口危机？

How Can China Promote a Sustainable Increase in Household Consumption?

如何促进中国家庭消费的可持续增长？

Mooncake Madness

月饼狂热

American Families Only Half as Rich as Those in Chinese Cities

美国家庭只有中国城市家庭一半富有

How Should We Think About Rising Home Prices?

我们应该如何看待房价不断上涨？

Property Developers' Debt: Taking Aim at the Grey Rhino

房地产开发商债务：瞄准“灰犀牛”

Why Not Eliminate Corporate Income Taxes?

何不取消企业所得税？

How Can China Achieve Carbon Neutrality By 2060?

中国如何在2060年前实现碳中和?

Part II Data and Analytic Techniques

第二部分 数据及分析技巧

China's Economy: The View From the IMF

中国经济：国际货币基金组织如是观

Are Central Banks Behind the Curve on Inflation?

中央银行在通胀问题上落后了吗？

Big Mac Prices — No Bull

巨无霸价格：牛年不吹牛

Is the US Chip Export Ban Consistent With Its WTO Commitments?

美国芯片出口禁令符合其世界贸易组织承诺吗？

Can Robots Help Mitigate China's Demographic Decline?

机器人能否帮助缓解中国人口下降的趋势？

The Demise of China's Private Sector: Greatly Exaggerated

中国私营部门的败落：被过分夸大了

Part III China and the Rest of the World

第三部分 中国与世界

US Companies: In China for the Long Haul

美国公司：在中国作长远打算

Will Japanese Firms Desert China?

日本企业会离开中国吗？

Shall the Twain Never Meet?

无问西东，相向而行

The High Cost of US-China Decoupling

中美“脱钩”的高昂代价

China's Balance of Payments Show the Dual Circulation Strategy at Work

中国的国际收支表明“双循环”战略正在奏效

How Long Will Foreign Investors' Love Affair With Chinese Bonds Last?

外国投资者和中国债券的“恋情”会持续多久？

Can China and the US Cooperate and Reform the WTO?

中美可以合作并改革世界贸易组织吗？

Are the Worst in US-China Relations Behind Us?

中美关系触底了吗？

China and American Foreign Policy for the Middle Class

中国与美国对中产阶级的外交政策

Part IV The Pandemic and the Chinese Government's Response

第四部分 新冠肺炎疫情和中国政府的应对之策

Advice From VoxEu: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes

来自VoxEu的建议：不惜一切代价迅速行动

How Will China Manage Massive Layoffs?

中国将如何应对大规模裁员?

Is China Decapitalizing Its Banks?

中国欲削减银行资本？

Are the Chinese Banks Really Supporting the Recovery?

银行真在支持中国经济复苏吗？

COVID-19 Is Accelerating China-US Convergence

新冠肺炎疫情加速缩小中美经济规模的差距

Trust in Chinese Government Defies Global Trend

全球信任度下滑之际，中国政府信任度逆势上升