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Boom Bust电子书

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作       者:Fred Harrison

出  版  社:M-Y Books

出版时间:2012-08-08

字       数:314.7万

所属分类: 进口书 > 外文原版书 > 经管/金融

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In the two and a half years since the first edition appeared (April 2005), events have unfolded as predicted. Then the consensus among forecasters was that the boom in house prices would cool to an annual 2 or 3% rise over the following years. In fact, in keeping with the ‘winner’s curse’ phase of the cycle described by the author, prices rose by more than 10% per annum in Britain. Harrison’s first book, The Power in the Land, predicted the early 1990s recession. Boom Bust, warned that investing in property is not always a safe bet, because the housing market is subject to a sharp downturn at the end of a remarkably regular 18-year cycle. The crash of 2007/8 occurred exactly as predicted. His forecast was based on a careful study of the evidence from property markets in many countries over the last 200 years. Gordon Brown’s claim, last made in his 2007 Budget speech, that ‘we will never return to the old boom and bust’ has been proved false. The reason for the instability, Harrison explains, is not the housing market itself but the land market on which all buildings stand. Land is in fixed supply ‘ as Mark Twain noted: ‘They’re not making any more of it’. Therefore, as the demand for land for new homes and offices rises with population growth and economic expansion, market forces, which normally increase supply to reduce prices, have the reverse effect: prices rise. This encourages speculation, with banks lending more against escalating asset values and reinforcing the upward spiral. Under existing government policies, the only way land prices can be brought back to affordable levels is a slump, undermining the banking system and causing widespread unemployment and repossessions. This is exactly what happened in America with the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market. The run on Northern Rock showed the UK economy is not immune. The author reveals that the government’s monetary policy only has a marginal impact on land speculation, but as the Bank of England raises interest rates to curb house price inflation, the main victim is the first-time buyer and the productive economy, especially small businesses. The only way to neutralise the boom bust cycle in the housing market is through a reform of taxation, he claims. ‘This book is an important contribution to an overdue debate.’ Martin Ricketts, Chairman of the Academic Advisory Council of the Institute of Economic Affairs and Professor of Economic Organisation, University of Buckingham. Endorsing the thrust of Harrison’s argument, Prof. Ricketts goes on to acknowledge ‘that insufficient attention has been given by policymakers to the rent of land as socially the most efficient source of public revenue’, and that that will ‘have important practical consequences … for the stability of the economic system’. Economic stability is the objective of Gordon Brown and most governments around the world. Harrison explains how this may be achieved.
目录展开

Title Page

Copyright Page

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements

Dedication

Preface to the Second Edition

Prologue

PART I - As Safe as Houses?

1 - Britain’s Housing and the Business Cycle

§1 A Budget for Boom Bust

§2 Mystery of the Missing Recession

§3 The House Price Test

§4 The Taxing Challenge

REFERENCES

2 - Banking on Failure

§1 The Patterns of History

§2 Blame it on ‘Inflation’

§2 The Secret of 5% Compound

REFERENCES

3 - The American State of Virtual Reality

§1 New Economy, Old Alchemy

§2 Sky-High Rents

§3 The Economic Law of Absorption

REFERENCES

4 - The Incredible Alan Greenspan

§1 The Troubles with Bubbles

§2 The Colour of Money

§3 Oil on Troubled Waters

§4 Guardians of Our Minds

REFERENCES

PART II - Genesis of the Boom-Bust Cycle

5 - Rent and the 18-Year Cycle

§1 The Repetitive Syndrome

§2 Origins of the Land Market

§3 Terminating Societies

§4 The Chicago Plot

§5 The Unpublished Evidence

REFERENCES

6 - The Patterns of History

§1 The Get-Rich-Quick Schemes

§2 The Mid-Cycle Crises

§3 Speculation as Causation

REFERENCES

7 - The Alchemy of Land Speculation

§1 Loot I: Nature

§2 Loot II: Taxpayers

§3 Blame it on God

§4 The Costs of Carnage

REFERENCES

8 - The End of Boom Bust?

§1 A Doctrine of Despair

§2 Economic Metaphysicians

§3 A Little Local Difficulty?

§4 The Pursuits of Free-Riders

REFERENCES

PART III - Anatomy of the First Global Cycle

9 - The New Ecomony: Selling an Anglo-American Myth

§1 Hard-Wired Hard Sell

§2 The Titanic Doctrine

§3 The Theory of Public Property

REFERENCES

10 - Launched in the USA

§1 Debt and Destruction

§2 Predatory Finance

§3 The Risk Makers

REFERENCES

11 - Gordon Brown’s Magic Mantra

§1 Miss Prudence, I Presume?

§2 The Tax-Funded Hoax

§3 Building in the Crisis

§ 4 Back to 5%

REFERENCES

PART IV - The Automatic Stabiliser

12 - Counter-Cyclical Action

§1 The Language of Failure

§ 2 Self-Defeating Strategies

§3 The Counter-Cyclical Strategy

§4 The People’s Budget

REFERENCES

13 - Australia: The Pathology of Taxation

§1 A Land of Riches

§2 Land Values as Public Revenue

§3 The Politics of Failure

§4 The Pathology of Taxation

REFERENCES

14 - Dividends from Democratised Finance

§1 A New Social Contract

§2 The Pay-Off

§3 Routes to Disaster

§4 The End of Predatory Politics?

REFERENCES

PART V - The Reckoning

15 - 2007: From Peak to Downwave

§1 The Alchemy of Debt

§2 Delusion: Sub-prime Borrowers

§3 The Correction

§4 The Policy Panic

REFERENCES

16 - 2010: Economics of the Debt Junkie

§1 From Recession to Depression

§2 ‘Rockpools of Joblessness’

§3 Tooling-up the Next Cycle

REFERENCES

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